These figures are presented in the new September edition of *Regional Economic Prospects*, published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. EBRD experts note that in the first quarter of 2026, real GDP growth slowed to 0.4% year-over-year amid a new energy shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. Domestic demand was supported by wage growth, expanded lending, and EU-backed investments, while rising energy prices weighed on purchasing power and business confidence. The increase in exports is so far helping to partially offset the pressure on external economic indicators and is contributing to a reduction in the current account deficit. After briefly falling below 5% in January 2026, inflation reached 6.3% year-over-year in July, prompting the central bank to raise its benchmark rate to 7.5% in August. International reserves remain at a sufficient level thanks to assistance from the EU, remittances, and official inflows. Key economic policy guidelines include the EU Mechanism for Reform and Economic Growth, with funding of 1.9 billion euros, and the IMF's new policy coordination instrument (which does not provide financing). The EBRD forecasts that Moldova's economic growth will reach 2.8% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027; however, there are downside risks to these figures due to energy price volatility, weak external demand, the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and delays in implementing reforms. It should be noted that in its previous June edition of the Regional Economic Prospects, the EBRD lowered its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2026 from 3% to 2.8%. At the same time, EBRD experts maintained their forecast for Moldova's economic growth in 2027 at 3.5%. It was previously reported that Moldova's GDP in the second quarter of 2026, compared to the second quarter of 2025, increased by 0.9% in real terms—to 88.328 billion lei. Overall, in the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, Moldova's GDP grew by 0.6% in real terms, reaching 165 billion 780 million lei. // 25.09.2026 — InfoMarket