Moldova's economic and policy agenda is set to move on several fronts, from revised inflation expectations and a major power-sector auction to new measures in taxation, cyber security and public spending. The full briefing also tracks shifts in trade, banking, agriculture and investment support that could shape the months ahead.
The National Bank of Moldova has revised its inflation forecast for the coming years, anticipating that price pressures will persist for a longer period than previously expected. In its new report, the regulator also highlighted factors that will influence demand trends, fuel prices, and external conditions, as well as risks to the regional and global economies.
In Moldova, sectoral indicators pointed to an improvement in economic activity in the third quarter of 2026, although the regulator also noted factors that could intensify inflationary pressures in the coming months. In explaining its latest monetary policy decision, the National Bank highlighted trends in production, trade, transportation, and consumer demand, as well as changes in foreign trade.
The National Bank of Moldova has once again raised its benchmark interest rate, bringing it to its highest level in the past three and a half years. The decision reflects a noticeable tightening of monetary policy: this article examines how the rate has changed in recent months and what levels the regulator has set in the past.
The National Bank of Moldova has once again tightened monetary policy by raising the benchmark rate and adjusting a number of related instruments. The decision was made amid accelerating inflation and revised forecasts, though the regulator left reserve requirement ratios unchanged.
The IMF raised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2026 from 1.5% to 1.7%, while lowering its forecast for 2027 from 2.3% to 2%
Moldova will open its negotiating position on one of the key chapters concerning economic and monetary policy to public discussion as part of its process of alignment with the EU. Authorities expect that the upcoming harmonization of regulations will affect the functioning of the financial system, the independence of the regulator, and approaches to public finance management.
According to analysts, Moldova's economy has entered a phase of stagnation: leading indicators have deteriorated, and key growth drivers have begun to lose momentum. Against the backdrop of weakening foreign trade, a slowdown in industrial production, and accelerating inflation, experts have revised their GDP forecasts for next year downward significantly.
Managers at Moldovan companies generally expect business activity to remain stable at the end of 2026, although forecasts vary significantly across a number of sectors. The survey also reveals which factors are currently the greatest constraints on business and where companies expect the most significant price increases and improvements in performance.
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