According to an economic policy expert at IDIS Viitorul, agriculture, exports, and the processing of agricultural products will be the main drivers of Moldova's economic growth this year. Veaceslav Ioniţă said that we are now seeing an improvement in the situation after three years of continuous decline in agricultural exports, and that agriculture is the main factor driving the growth of Moldovan exports. According to the expert, the exceptional results of 2022—agrifood exports totaling nearly 2 billion euros—were driven by a favorable combination of a very good harvest and high prices on foreign markets. Veaceslav Ioniţă noted that the recovery in agri-food exports is mainly driven by several product categories. The largest growth was seen in the following categories: oilseeds—over 200 million euros; grains—90.9 million euros; vegetable oil—75.5 million euros; fruits—30.4 million euros; and food industry byproducts—13 million euros. At the same time, exports in some categories declined: vegetables—by 3.8 million euros; alcoholic beverages—by 36.7 million euros. Veaceslav Ioniţă also highlighted the trends in the trade balance for agricultural products. "While in 2008 it recorded a negative balance of nearly 20 million euros for the first time, then in the second quarter of 2025—on an annualized basis—the deficit reached 60 million euros for the second time in the country's history and, hopefully, for the last time. The situation is currently improving because, although imports are growing, exports are increasing at a much faster rate. However, Moldova is still far from the figures of 2022, when the trade surplus in agricultural products amounted to 600 million euros. The trade balance in primary agricultural production has always been positive. "But it would be better if this balance were positive in the processing industry as well, where the situation remains quite challenging," the expert said. According to him, one of the main problems identified is the structure of exports. While exports of finished products dominated agri-food trade until 2010, the situation is now practically the opposite. In the 2000s, finished products accounted for approximately 75% of agri-food exports, while raw materials accounted for about 25%. Currently, finished products account for about 31%, and raw materials for 69%. According to the expert, there is currently a slight recovery in exports of finished products. As for processed food products and beverages, the trade balance remains negative. For the first time, a deficit of nearly 7 million euros was recorded in the third quarter of 2024. Subsequently, the situation worsened, and in the third quarter of 2025, the deficit reached 223 million euros. In the second quarter of 2026, it fell to 160 million euros. "The situation is improving, but the trade balance for processed food products remains negative," said Veaceslav Ioniţă. At the same time, imports of agricultural and food products stabilized at just over 700 million euros, without any significant increase. The expert believes that the improvement is mainly due to growth in exports. One of the most dynamically developing segments is the export of oilseeds and sunflower oil. The previous record, set in 2022, was 725 million euros. After falling to 451 million euros in 2024, exports rose to 731 million euros in the second quarter of 2026. "While exports of oilseeds and sunflower oil were practically on par in 2022, exports of oilseeds grew significantly in the second quarter of 2026," the expert explained. Sunflower prices also began to rise in 2026, both at the export level and at the producer level, following weaker trends in previous years. In the case of grain crops, exports reached a record high of 378 million euros in 2022, compared to 102 million euros in 2020. After falling to 234 million euros in 2025, grain exports reached 303 million euros in the second quarter of 2026. "And in the grain sector, after a continuous decline over three years, we are seeing a recovery. However, the situation with grain crops is complicated," said Veaceslav Ioniţă. According to him, the main problem with wheat is the price. While the average export price was 5.8 lei per kilogram in the third quarter of 2022, in the third quarter of 2025 it fell to 3.6 lei, and in the second quarter of 2026, it rose slightly to 3.9 lei. The domestic price is approximately 3.1 lei per kilogram. "Today, a Moldovan producer selling wheat is doing so at a price half that of 2022," the economist noted. According to him, another important segment of agri-food exports—alcoholic beverages—experienced a downward trend following strong results in 2024. Growth up to that point had been largely driven by entry into a new market—the United States—and exports of a new product, vermouth. Subsequently, this segment was affected by the imposition of customs duties on Moldovan products. Thus, while exports of alcoholic beverages totaled 251 million euros in 2024, they fell to 211 million euros in the second quarter of 2026. Veaceslav Ioniţă also noted the trend in agricultural exports relative to GDP. While this share stood at 27.7% of GDP in 1997, it fell to 16.4% in 2005 and to 8.4% in 2008. Subsequently, this figure rose to 11.6% in 2017 and to 13.2% in 2022, reaching 8.9% in 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, the share increased to 9.7%. "By the end of the year, I hope it will exceed 10%. The trend is positive," the expert concluded. According to Veaceslav Ioniţă, the recovery of agricultural exports is a positive sign for Moldova's economy; however, strengthening this engine of growth depends on the economy's ability to transition from exporting raw materials to exporting processed agricultural products with higher added value. // 04.09.2026 — InfoMarket