Moldova's economic agenda is being reshaped on several fronts, from a revised growth outlook and new energy rules to fresh moves in trade regulation and public investment. At the same time, major financing, infrastructure and banking developments point to a busy period ahead for businesses and policymakers.
The IMF raised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2026 from 1.5% to 1.7%, while lowering its forecast for 2027 from 2.3% to 2%
Moldova's economy enters the week with a mixed picture: weaker exports and industrial output, stronger retail activity, and a subdued growth outlook for next year. At the same time, the agenda is packed with developments in public finance, energy, trade and regulation that could affect businesses and households in the months ahead.
Moldova's public debt reached a new all-time high in September, continuing to rise both compared to the previous month and since the beginning of the year. The Ministry of Finance attributes the increase to trends in domestic and external debt, while the structure of the debt is also changing, and its burden on the economy remains a focus of market attention.
An IMF mission will return to Moldova later this month to review recent economic developments and discuss the authorities' policy priorities, with talks expected to cover the next steps on macroeconomic and financial stability. The visit comes after earlier discussions on a new medium-term program and against a backdrop of shifting growth, inflation and external balance forecasts.
The IMF has updated its economic projections for Moldova for the coming years, maintaining one of its key forecasts while revising downward its outlook for the longer term. The Fund has also adjusted its inflation expectations and external imbalance parameters, indicating continued pressure on the country's economy.
The World Bank has updated its assessment of Moldova's economic outlook for the coming years, maintaining one of its key forecasts and slightly improving another. The new report also highlights the factors that continue to hold back growth and the conditions that will determine the economy's trajectory in the medium term.
Moldova's external debt increased significantly in the first half of the year, with growth occurring in both the public and private sectors. In its published balance of payments report, the National Bank also disclosed the structure of liabilities, the debt-to-GDP ratio, and key creditors, which allows for an assessment of the sources contributing to the burden on the economy.
The EBRD maintained its GDP growth forecast for Moldova at 2.8% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027
Sergiu Padure, Chief Economist at Moldindconbank
Moldova's economy continued to grow in the first half of the year, and the latest data from statistics agencies and the National Bank indicate that this positive trend continued into the second quarter. At the same time, when making its decision on the interest rate, the regulator specifically noted changes in key sectors, foreign trade, and consumer activity, which together paint a picture of recovery.
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