The IT sector is growing, but its contribution to the economy is declining: how AI is changing one of Moldova's most successful industries

The Moldovan IT sector finds itself in an unusual situation. Companies at the Moldova Innovation Technology Park (MITP) continue to rapidly increase their sales, the number of residents, and the number of employees. However, as we have previously reported, the picture painted by gross domestic product (GDP) statistics is the opposite: in the first half of 2026, gross value added (GVA) in the IT sector fell by 8% in real terms, its share of GDP dropped to 7.3%, and its contribution to economic growth was negative 0.6 percentage points.

This is a significant reversal for an industry that, until recently, was one of the drivers of economic growth. At the end of 2025, the IT sector's GVA grew by 12.5%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth, and its share of the economy stood at 7.5%. Now the IT sector finds itself on par with construction and real estate among the sectors that have most severely slowed economic growth.

At the same time, the IT business itself, according to MITP data, continues to grow at double-digit rates. In the first six months of 2026, sales by park residents reached 10.7 billion lei—19.1% more than a year earlier. By the end of June, MITP comprised 2,931 active companies, employing more than 27,150 people.

This results in an unusual discrepancy: MITP companies' sales are increasing by nearly a fifth, while the IT sector's real value added is declining by 8%.

There is no direct contradiction here. These are different indicators and not entirely overlapping groups of enterprises. MITP comprises companies operating under a special tax regime, whereas national statistics account for the entire IT sector. Furthermore, MITP reports the sales of resident companies, while GDP calculations are based on value added. Therefore, one indicator can rise even as another declines.

But right now, another change is adding to this statistical discrepancy—one that may prove more significant than the results of a single half-year: the IT sector is rapidly adopting artificial intelligence.

A study by Magenta Consulting, commissioned by MITP in April–May 2026 and conducted among 1,560 companies, showed that 78% of the surveyed companies are already using AI fully or partially. Moreover, 37% use it extensively, while another 41% use it in specific areas of their operations. For 31% of companies, AI is already a core technological pillar.

This goes beyond just new products. Among companies using AI, 80% apply it to internal processes and to improve productivity, 77% use it in software development and testing, and 65% use it for data analysis and decision-making. In software development, code generation, and testing, 79% of relevant companies are using or testing AI.

This is particularly significant for Moldova, given how the local IT industry has developed. Half of the MITP companies surveyed are engaged in custom software development, while another 14% provide IT consulting. Fifty-seven percent operate exclusively in the services sector, while another 35% combine services with the development of their own products. Overall, services account for about 52% of the surveyed companies' activities, while products account for 48%. At the same time, 84% are focused on foreign markets.

It is the service segment of the industry that is most sensitive to the spread of AI. If a programmer can use AI to accomplish a greater volume of work in the same amount of time, companies no longer need to proportionally increase their workforce in response to growth in orders and revenue.

This trend is already clearly visible in the MITP structure, although that alone does not yet prove the impact of AI. Companies with fewer than 50 employees generated 5.9 billion lei in the first half of 2026, or 55% of the sector's total sales. Companies with 50 to 249 employees generated an additional 2.8 billion lei. Thus, companies with fewer than 250 employees accounted for approximately 82% of MITP's revenue. Even among the 35 largest residents by sales, 23 have fewer than 250 employees. For technology businesses, a large workforce is increasingly less of a prerequisite for high revenue.

There is another indicator as well. In the second quarter of 2026, the vacancy rate in the IT sector stood at 2.4%, compared to an economy-wide average of 4.5%. This does not mean that IT companies have stopped hiring employees because of AI. But with business continuing to grow, the industry's demand for additional labor no longer appears to be as high.

At the same time, labor in the sector remains the most expensive in the country. The average salary in the IT sector in the second quarter of 2026 reached 41,000 lei per month, an increase of 13.1% over the year. This is approximately 2.4 times higher than the average wage across the economy. For companies, the high cost of labor is becoming an additional incentive to use tools that help boost the productivity of existing teams.

It is still too early to say that artificial intelligence is already shrinking the Moldovan IT sector, let alone causing mass bankruptcies. The statistics do not support this. The number of MITP residents continues to increase, sales are growing by nearly 20%, and the number of employees exceeds 27,000.

However, the first specific case has already emerged. Reports have appeared in the press that Quadra Digital SRL—an MITP resident specializing in the publication of computer games—filed for bankruptcy and successfully initiated insolvency proceedings. The company cited the "rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies" as the cause of its financial problems. This is still an isolated case and does not indicate a trend for the entire sector. However, it shows that for certain business models, the impact of AI is no longer merely a theoretical risk.

At the same time, the performance of the entire IT sector is influenced by external demand, the global outsourcing market, contract structures, and other factors. Therefore, there is currently insufficient evidence to directly link the 8% decline in its GDP to the spread of AI.

However, the previous link between the growth of the IT business and its contribution to the economy no longer appears so clear-cut. Sales within the MITP continue to grow rapidly, while the real value added of the entire IT sector has declined, and its contribution to GDP growth has turned negative.

AI has the potential to alter this relationship even further. For an individual company, the ability to fulfill the same contract with a smaller team means increased efficiency. For the economy, the effect is more complex: exports and sales may grow faster than employment, and an increase in the industry's revenue will no longer necessarily mean a corresponding increase in the number of high-paying jobs.

One thing is clear for now: AI is already changing the model of Moldova's IT sector. The sector continues to grow, but the formula for its development is changing. If this trend continues, the main indicator of its success will no longer be the number of new IT companies or even sales in the billions, but rather how much added value and how many high-paying jobs this growth creates within the Moldovan economy. // 22.09.2026 — InfoMarket.