Moldova's economic outlook has been revised as inflation pressures remain elevated and growth expectations soften, while businesses continue to face weak demand, financing constraints and labor shortages. At the same time, authorities are moving on energy market rules, infrastructure projects and new support measures for SMEs, with several regulatory and financing changes set to shape the months ahead.
An IMF mission will return to Moldova later this month to review recent economic developments and discuss the authorities' policy priorities, with talks expected to cover the next steps on macroeconomic and financial stability. The visit comes after earlier discussions on a new medium-term program and against a backdrop of shifting growth, inflation and external balance forecasts.
The IMF has updated its economic projections for Moldova for the coming years, maintaining one of its key forecasts while revising downward its outlook for the longer term. The Fund has also adjusted its inflation expectations and external imbalance parameters, indicating continued pressure on the country's economy.
On the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, a delegation from the National Bank of Moldova discussed with its partners a new cooperation program, as well as measures to curb inflation and strengthen financial stability. The talks focused on the country's macroeconomic outlook, its vulnerability to external shocks, and next steps in reforms critical to European integration.
With a monthly inflation rate of 1.66% in September 2026, Moldova ranked second in terms of the consumer price index among the European and regional countries analyzed by the National Bank of Moldova
Annual inflation in Moldova accelerated in September and has remained above the National Bank's target range for the second consecutive month. The most significant price increases were seen in certain categories of goods, fuel, and regulated services, although price trends varied across different segments.
The World Bank expects economic growth in Europe and Central Asia to slow in the coming years amid pressure from high energy prices, weak external demand, and ongoing uncertainty. The new report also notes significant differences among subregions: some economies are remaining resilient thanks to domestic demand and investment, while others are facing a more pronounced slowdown in business activity.
The World Bank has updated its assessment of Moldova's economic outlook for the coming years, maintaining one of its key forecasts and slightly improving another. The new report also highlights the factors that continue to hold back growth and the conditions that will determine the economy's trajectory in the medium term.
In Moldova, there is discussion of a sharp change in the tax burden on sugar, which, according to industry estimates, could have a significant impact on both consumer prices and the stability of the entire sector. Producers are warning of risks to the domestic market, investment, and employment, as well as potential consequences for the supply chain and competition with imports.
The EBRD maintained its GDP growth forecast for Moldova at 2.8% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027
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