Inflation in Moldova fell to 6.34% in July and, after three months of exceeding the target, returned to the National Bank's target range of 5% ±1.5 percentage points. Moreover, the country has recorded slight deflation for the second consecutive month. In June, it was -0.06% compared to May, and in July, it was -0.14% compared to June. But just a few days before these figures were released, the National Bank raised its base rate again—from 7% to 7.5%.
This paints a rather unusual picture: inflation is falling, prices have even decreased slightly on average for the second month in a row, yet the NBM continues to raise the cost of money in the economy.
However, the July statistics look more stable primarily thanks to food prices. Over the month, food prices fell by an average of 1.07%, including vegetables—which dropped by 9%—and eggs—which fell by 2.8%. This allowed the overall consumer price index to decline by 0.14%. Non-food goods, on the other hand, rose in price by 0.52% over the month, while services rose by 0.16%.
Fuel prices continue to rise particularly sharply. In July, diesel prices rose another 3.9%, and gasoline prices rose 1%. Compared to July of last year, diesel prices have already risen by 34.7%, and gasoline prices by 24.3%. Passenger transportation costs have risen by 28.7% over the past year, electricity by 15.2%, and food services by 10.9%. However, compared to last summer, natural gas is still 13.9% cheaper, and district heating is 17% cheaper.
But the situation with gas may change soon. Currently, the regulated price for consumers connected to low-pressure networks is 13,353 thousand lei per 1,000 cubic meters, excluding VAT. In July, Energocom asked NARE to raise it to 19,378 thousand lei, or by approximately 45%. The regulator itself proposes a slightly lower price in its published draft—18,798 thousand lei per 1,000 cubic meters—but even this is about 41% higher than the current rate. For now, this is only a draft; ANRE has not yet made a final decision.
The reason behind Energocom's request also highlights where new inflationary risks may arise. When the current tariff was approved, calculations were based on an average gas purchase price of 404.24 euros per 1,000 cubic meters. In fact, from January through July, it averaged about 423.28 euros, and Energocom forecasts it will reach 623.54 euros for August through December. The company estimates the tariff shortfall accumulated over the first seven months at approximately 106.8 million lei.
Electricity also remains expensive. Currently, the regulated price for universal service for low-voltage consumers is 3.56 lei per kWh in the Premier Energy zone and 3.95 lei in the north of the country with Furnizarea Energiei Electrice Nord—excluding VAT. At the same time, according to July's inflation figures, electricity is still 15.2% more expensive than it was a year ago.
Therefore, the annual inflation rate of 6.34% as of the end of July does not mean that price pressures have disappeared. This is especially true for businesses, whose expenses include fuel, transportation, electricity, salaries, and other costs. And a possible—or nearly 100%—new increase in gas prices will affect not only households' bills but also the cost of goods and services provided by businesses.
On August 6, 2026, the National Bank raised the base rate from 7% to 7.5% per annum. This is already the third consecutive increase. Until May, the rate stood at 5%; on May 7, the NBM raised it immediately to 6.5%, on June 18 to 7%, and now to 7.5%. Thus, in just three months, the base rate has risen by 2.5 percentage points.
The National Bank's forecast regarding inflation trends is far from optimistic. The NBM raised its average annual inflation forecast for this year from 7% to 7.2%, and for 2027—from 5.8% to 6.2%. According to the regulator's assessment, inflation will remain above the upper limit of the target range until the second quarter of 2027 and will return to the target range in the third quarter.
Among the reasons for revising the forecast, the National Bank cites a stronger-than-expected secondary effect of rising fuel prices, higher global food prices, imported inflation, strong domestic demand, and future changes in excise taxes. Separately, the NBM points to an expected increase in regulated tariffs as early as the third quarter of 2026. Notably, some of these increases were previously expected only in the fourth quarter but have now been brought forward in the forecast.
The NBM also highlights demand. In the second quarter, remittances to individuals from abroad rose by 26.32% compared to the same period last year. Overall, during the first half of the year, individuals received $967.11 million from abroad through Moldovan banks, which is $195.07 million more than a year earlier.
Lending also continues to grow. In the second quarter, banks issued new loans totaling 22.95 billion lei, of which approximately 8.1 billion lei went to individuals. The NBM notes that the volume of loans to individuals in lei grew by 13.1% year-over-year, primarily due to consumer and mortgage loans.
In other words, despite the tightening of monetary policy that has already begun, the amount of money available for consumption in the economy is not yet decreasing. This means that domestic demand remains strong, which the National Bank views as one of the factors contributing to future inflationary pressure.
More expensive credit should curb lending and consumption and encourage savings, so that rising prices for fuel, energy, and other goods do not spread further throughout the economy.
Against the backdrop of all the economic news, some experts believe that even the National Bank's forecast of 7.2% annual average inflation in 2026 is too optimistic. Fall will be full of surprises. // 11.07.2026 – InfoMarket.