The National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE) has postponed the mandatory transition of Moldova's medium- and large-sized enterprises to the free electricity market from January 1 to July 1, 2027. The government expects that competition will allow businesses to optimize their costs. However, the regulator itself acknowledges that the market is not yet sufficiently developed for full liberalization. In other words, businesses are being asked to abandon regulated prices and rely on competition, even though the conditions for such competition have not yet been established.
Residents, micro-enterprises, and small businesses will retain the option to purchase electricity at regulated prices. For other consumers covered by the reform, contracts with suppliers on commercial terms will become mandatory.
The reasons for postponing the deadline are outlined in a ANRE study: low liquidity in organized trading, insufficient development of balancing mechanisms, and limited competition among suppliers.
According to ANRE data for 2025, more than 80 licenses for electricity supply were issued in Moldova; however, only five suppliers were actually operating in the retail market, three of which supplied electricity at contract prices.
As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, Premier Energy accounted for 72.86% of retail electricity supply, while Furnizarea Energiei Electrice Nord accounted for 24.36%. These two companies accounted for 97.22% of the market. The market shares of the remaining suppliers were significantly smaller: M. Energy Trading—1.82%, Navitas Energy—0.83%, and ML Energy Group—0.13%.
The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures market concentration, stood at 6,136 points in the retail segment and 7,016 points in the wholesale market in 2025. The maximum value of the index is 10,000 points, which corresponds to a monopoly held by a single company. At the same time, the high figure for the wholesale market is partly due to Energocom's special obligations to ensure electricity supplies.
Competition issues also became apparent in practice. In June 2026, ANRE was unable to complete the competitive selection of universal service and last-resort suppliers: only one application was received in each territory. The regulator was forced to maintain the mechanism for ensuring supply by imposing public service obligations.
For a business, what matters is not the number of licenses, but the ability to receive several comparable commercial offers. Meanwhile, ANRE noted a lack of offers covering periods longer than one month, which makes it difficult to plan electricity expenses.
According to ANRE, in 2025, approximately 4.14 billion kWh of electricity was supplied to consumers in the service areas of the two main distribution operators. Non-residential consumers accounted for more than half of the total volume. However, this category also includes small and micro-enterprises, which retain the right to purchase electricity at regulated prices. Therefore, the share of consumption directly affected by mandatory liberalization requires a separate assessment.
For industry, even a small price change can mean significant additional costs. With an annual consumption of 1 million kWh, a 10 ban increase in the cost of electricity per kWh raises costs by 100,000 lei. For a company with consumption of 10 million kWh, a similar increase would mean additional expenses of 1 million lei annually.
Moldova's dependence on external supplies complicates the liberalization process. According to a ANRE study, in the first half of 2026, domestic production accounted for 53% of the electricity supplied to end users. However, having domestic generation capacity does not mean complete energy independence. Generation from renewable sources depends on weather conditions, while production at combined heat and power plants depends, among other factors, on the heating season. Therefore, the need for imports persists even as domestic generation capacity increases.
In earlier calculations by ANRE, the available commercial capacity for imports was estimated at approximately 300 MW, with a maximum grid load of 1,057 MW. The availability of cross-border capacity remains one of the factors influencing the cost of electricity.
As a result, the spot price will depend not only on competition among suppliers but also on the cost of imports and conditions in regional markets.
ANRE recommends that enterprises seek out suppliers in advance and negotiate contract terms taking hourly consumption into account. Companies capable of shifting production to hours when electricity is cheaper can indeed reduce costs. However, for enterprises with a continuous production cycle, this option is limited. Installing energy storage systems, automating consumption management, and adjusting production schedules require investments that are far from accessible to everyone.
The distribution of risks is also changing. Under regulated pricing, the cost of electricity is set by the National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE), whereas in a free market, a company independently chooses its supplier and assumes the risks associated with changes in contract prices. At the same time, regulated rates can also rise and are not necessarily lower than market prices.
Moldovan enterprises are already facing high financing costs and rising labor expenses. Additional uncertainty regarding electricity costs complicates financial planning, especially for exporters competing with producers from countries with more affordable energy resources.
Liberalization is necessary for integration into the European energy market and can stimulate the emergence of new suppliers, the development of generation capacity, and investment in energy storage. However, these benefits do not materialize automatically following the abolition of regulated prices. The key indicator of market readiness will be the availability of genuine alternative suppliers, sufficient electricity volumes, and long-term commercial offers.
If, by the time of the mandatory transition, businesses do not have a real choice of suppliers and procurement terms, liberalization will change the pricing mechanism but will not create the competition for which the reform is being carried out. // 13.11.2026 – InfoMarket.