Macroeconomics
• The NBM raised its forecast for average annual inflation in 2026 from 7.00% to 7.20%, and for 2027 from 5.80% to 6.20%. Annual inflation is projected to reach 9.20% in Q4 2026 and return to the target range from Q3 2027; restrictive monetary conditions will persist through the end of 2026.
Energy and Resources
• Energocom has contracted around 76.00% of the gas required for the 2026–2027 gas year and fully covered the projected need for the October–March heating season - 3,832,693 MWh. The storage obligation equals 15.00% of the annual forecast, or around 134.50 million cubic meters for Energocom.
• In Q2, the HHI concentration index in the retail gas market fell from 8,867 to 2,881 points (-67.50%) - its lowest level on record. There are 11 active suppliers in the market; 193 of 203 large non-household consumers signed contracts at negotiated prices, while gas imports in H1 rose by 7.00% to 597.10 million cubic meters.
• The shutdown of the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant did not directly disrupt Moldova's electricity supply, but reduced regional electricity availability and increased price risks. On August 13, Energocom purchased 9,749 MWh: 64.25% under bilateral import contracts and 30.37% from local renewable sources; after the shutdown, Romania began importing more than 100 MW from Moldova.
Foreign Economy and Trade
• Moldova granted a 50.00% discount for the rail transit of Ukrainian cargo and expects to attract around 600.00 thousand metric tons by the end of 2026; the discussed 4.50 million metric tons is the estimated annual capacity of the corridor, not an agreed volume. The Ministry of Infrastructure says rates for Moldovan exporters will not change, transit remains under NCTS customs control, and the mechanism will be adjusted if national exports come under pressure.
• Imports from the EU in January–May rose by 7.90% to EUR 2,323.40 million, while the EU's share in total imports reached 55.69%. Moldova's exports to countries outside the EU and CIS increased by 12.70% to EUR 425.40 million; shipments to Turkey rose by 24.60% to EUR 205.10 million and to Ukraine by 2.10% to EUR 105.40 million.
Government Regulation
• The Ministry of Finance proposed phasing in VAT and excise duties from September 1 on goods imported by economic operators from Transnistria: first on alcohol, tobacco, automobiles, jewelry, telephones and other goods; from January 1, 2027 - on certain raw materials and petroleum products; from April 1, 2027 - on natural gas and electricity. By 2030, the general tax regime is planned to apply to all such import operations.
Investment and Projects
• Ten hospitals of national importance will undergo energy-efficiency modernization: insulation, upgrades to heating and lighting systems, and installation of solar panels. Energy consumption is expected to fall by up to 41.00%, generating savings of around EUR 2.80 million per year.
• Imports of goods and services for the modernization of 15 schools are proposed to be exempt from VAT and customs duties totaling EUR 5.89 million. The project is financed by a EUR 30.00 million Council of Europe Development Bank loan and a EUR 5.00 million energy-efficiency grant; it will cover around 12.80 thousand students and 800 employees.
Business and Companies
• The state-owned enterprise Moldovan Railways ended H1 with a profit of 18.00 million lei on revenue of 405.50 million lei and expenses of 387.50 million lei; its loss was 322.00 million lei in 2024 and 89.00 million lei in 2025. Since May, salaries have been paid on time and wage arrears have been cleared.
• Aviation industry revenue in H1 rose by 39.90% to 5,294.63 million lei. Tax payments increased by 74.20% to 391.60 million lei, including 173.00 million lei to the state budget and 159.80 million lei to the social insurance budget.
Social Economy
• In 2025, 9,643 people declared income above 1.00 million lei - 20.00% more than a year earlier. The group reported total income of 32.80 billion lei and paid 2.30 billion lei in income tax; dividends accounted for 59.40% of income.
Day in Numbers
7.20% | NBM forecast for average annual inflation in 2026. |
76.00% | share of gas needs for the 2026–2027 gas year already contracted by Energocom. |
134.50 million cubic meters | Energocom's gas storage obligation for the cold period. |
EUR 2,323.40 million | Moldova's imports from EU countries in January–May 2026. |
EUR 425.40 million | Moldova's exports to countries outside the EU and CIS in January–May 2026. |
5,294.63 million lei | aviation industry revenue in H1 2026. |
18.00 million lei | profit of the state-owned enterprise Moldovan Railways in H1 2026. |
EUR 2.80 million | expected annual energy savings after the modernization of 10 hospitals. |
ANNOUNCEMENTS
• On August 14 at 10:00, the NBS will publish data on exports, imports and the trade balance by groups of countries for June, as well as a review of the activity of travel agencies and tour operators for H1 2026.
• On August 14 at 14:00, the NBS will publish data on international merchandise trade for January–June 2026; sales volume indices based on VAT declarations for June and statistics on border crossings by foreign citizens for July will also be updated.
• On August 14, as part of Diaspora Days, meetings will be held with the National Employment Agency at 10:00, the Ministry of Finance at 13:00 on the public finance system, and the National Inspectorate for Technical Supervision at 16:00.