The Moldovan government has passed the draft law on the state budget for 2026 with a deficit of 20.9 million lei (5.5% of GDP)
In particular, next year's state budget revenue is expected to amount to 79 billion 674 million lei (up 3 billion 877.2 million lei, or 5.1%, compared to the revised figures for 2025), expenditures will amount to 100 billion 574 million lei (up 6 billion 556.2 million lei, or 7%), and the deficit will amount to 20 billion 900 million lei (up 2 billion 689 million lei, or 14.8%). According to the Ministry of Finance, revenue growth is projected in a context of moderate economic growth, which will be facilitated by favorable external conditions, the progress of structural reforms, and increased investment related to European integration as part of the implementation of the EU-supported Moldova Growth Plan. The state budget revenue forecast for 2026 is largely based on an increase in tax and fee revenues, while grant revenues will decline significantly. The share of state budget revenues in relation to GDP is estimated at 21.1%. In the structure of projected state budget revenues for 2026, the predominant share – 91.4% (72 billion 818.5 million lei) –accounts for revenues from taxes and fees, with a projected growth of 8.7% (+5 billion 801.7 million lei). The share of these revenues in GDP will be 19.3%. Of the total amount of taxes and fees, income taxes will account for 19.2%, property taxes – 0.1%, taxes and fees on goods and services – 76.6%, and taxes on foreign trade and foreign economic activity – 4.1%. Revenues from personal income tax for 2026 are projected at 3 billion 814 million lei, which is 420.4 million lei more than the amount planned for 2025. This growth will be driven by an 11.2% increase in the wage fund, as well as the impact of the minimum wage increase from 5,500 to 6,300 lei. Revenues from corporate income tax are expected to amount to 10 billion 163.2 million lei, up 8% (+756 million lei) compared to 2025. The growth is due to the dynamics of revenues in 2025, reflecting the positive results achieved by economic entities in the previous financial year, including through the payment of dividends. Value added tax will remain the most important source of state budget revenue. Revenue from this tax in 2026 is projected to amount to 40 billion 540.0 million lei, which is 3 billion 327 million lei (8.9%) more than in 2025. The share of VAT in total taxes and fees will be 55.7%, and in total state budget revenues – 50.9%. The volume of value-added tax revenues for 2026 has been calculated taking into account the forecast for domestic consumption (up 4.3% compared to 2025), a 9.9% increase in import volumes, exchange rate fluctuations, and improvements in tax and customs administration. Value-added tax revenues on goods and services produced in the country for 2026 are estimated at 16 billion 140 million lei and will increase by 1 billion 450 million lei (+9.9%) compared to the level set for 2025. VAT revenues on imported goods are estimated at 29.85 billion lei. Compared to the level set for 2025, these revenues will increase by 2.32 billion lei (+8.4%). Value-added tax refunds on goods and services with the right of deduction are estimated at 5.93 billion lei and will account for 14.6% of the VAT amount projected in the budget. Compared to 2025, VAT refunds will increase by 443 million lei (+8.8%) and will account for about 1.4% of GDP. The fiscal policy measures proposed for implementation in 2026 will lead to an increase in excise tax revenues to the state budget by 950.4 million lei (+7.6%) compared to the specified level in 2025 and will amount to 13 billion 531.4 million lei. Excise taxes will account for 18.6% of total taxes and fees and 17% of total state budget revenues. Of the projected excise tax revenues for 2026, about 11 billion 781.3 million lei (87.1%) are expected to come from the sale of imported goods, and 1 billion 750.1 million lei (12.9%) from the sale of goods produced in the country. Revenues from taxes on foreign trade and foreign economic operations are projected at 3 billion 038.3 million lei, which is 246.1 million lei (8.8%) more than in 2025. At the same time, revenues from the application of customs tariffs are projected to amount to 2 billion 979.7 million lei in 2026, which represents the largest share – 98.1% – of the total amount of taxes on foreign trade and foreign economic operations. Revenues from customs procedures are projected to amount to 52.4 million lei, and from consular fees – 56.2 million lei. These revenues will account for 3.8% of total state budget revenues, 4.2% of taxes and fees, and 0.8% of GDP. Property income will amount to 1 billion 390.3 million lei and includes interest income on budget accounts collected from the state budget (312.1 million lei), the NBM's profit balance (600.0 million lei), dividends received from the state's share in joint-stock companies (340.0 million lei), distributions from the net profit of state-owned enterprises (110.0 million lei), rent of non-agricultural land (27.5 million lei), and other income – 0.7 million lei. The expenditure side of the state budget for 2026 is projected at 100 billion 574.0 million lei, up 6 billion 566.2 million lei (+7%) compared to the revised figure for 2025. Excluding expenditures related to projects financed from external sources, state budget expenditures will amount to 94 billion 867.4 million lei, up 4 billion 210.4 million lei (+4.6%) compared to 2025. Expenditures for projects financed from external sources are projected at 5 billion 706.6 million lei and will increase by 2 billion 355.8 million lei (+70.3%) compared to 2025. State budget expenditures for 2026 are determined by medium-term budget policy objectives and provide for the financial support of sectoral priorities in accordance with national and sectoral policy documents, the implementation of measures under Moldova's Growth Plan; continuation of current policy measures in the regions, as well as the implementation of measures within the framework of projects and actions in accordance with agreements with development partners. Of the expenditures provided for in the budget, 93% will be covered by general state budget resources, and 7% by revenues from the performance of work and the provision of paid services; by grants and loans for projects financed from external sources, as well as by donations and other funds legally credited to the accounts of budgetary institutions. Expenditures related to externally financed projects are estimated at 5 billion 706.6 million lei (5.7% of state budget expenditures), which is 70.3% more than in 2025. In 2026, 112 externally financed projects are expected to be implemented, the most important of which are: the Road Sector Program Support Project - 776.6 million lei; “Improvement of Water Infrastructure in Central Moldova” - 362.7 million lei; “Moldova Forest Development Program” - 330.1 million lei; “Roads of Moldova III,” “Roads of Moldova IV,” and “Roads of Moldova V” - 280 million lei; “Modernization of agricultural machinery and equipment” - 261.5 million lei; “Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience Project” - 257.9 million lei; “RLF – Moldovan Railways Crisis Response” – 257.8 million lei; “Chisinau Penitentiary Construction Project” – 250 million lei; “Moldova – Agriculture Governance, Growth and Resilience Investment” – 228.5 million lei; “Moldova Solid Waste Project” – 214.8 million lei; “Moldova Higher Education” – 149.6 million lei; “Moldova Energy Efficiency” – 145 million lei; “Support for SMEs for Cooperation and Development (KFW)” – 137.9 million lei; “Fruit Garden of Moldova” – 130.7 million lei. Current expenditures are estimated at 89 billion 156.1 million lei, which is 3 billion 585.5 million lei (4.2%) more than in 2025. Capital expenditures will amount to 11 billion 417.9 million lei, which is 2 billion 980.7 million lei (35.3%) more than in 2025. The share of capital expenditures in total state budget expenditures is 11.4%, and in GDP – about 3%. Approximately 61.3% of capital expenditures (7 billion 002.5 million lei) will be financed from general resources, and 38.7% (4 billion 415.4 million lei) from external sources. Capital investment expenditures amount to 3 billion 035.8 million lei (for the implementation of 85 capital investment projects), or 26.6% of total capital expenditures and 3% of total state budget expenditures. In 2026, capital investment expenditures will increase as a result of the launch of new projects in 2026, funded by allocations provided for investment projects and measures under Moldova's Growth Plan for 2025-2027. The trend of previous years in terms of sources of coverage for capital investment expenses will continue: the largest share of expenses will be covered by projects financed from external sources – 2 billion 127.7 million lei (70.1%) – and from general resources – 908.1 million lei (29.9%). The draft law on the state budget for 2026 stipulates that the Road Fund will amount to 1 billion 821.2 million lei next year, the National Fund for Agriculture and Rural Development– 2 billion 325.8 million lei (628 million 845 thousand lei are related to Moldova's Growth Plan), the Vine and Wine Fund – 59.26 million lei, the Energy Vulnerability Reduction Fund – 1 billion 989.2 million lei, the National Regional and Local Development Fund – 1 billion 937.9 million lei (1.1 billion lei relate to Moldova's Economic Growth Plan), National Environment Fund – 195 million lei (20 million lei related to Moldova's Growth Plan); Voluntary Amalgamation of Localities Fund – 173.74 million lei. 66.6 million lei is earmarked for financing political parties; 3.03 billion lei for financing capital investments by budgetary authorities; 56.4 million lei for paying contributions to international organizations of which Moldova is a member; 25 million lei for activities related to the reintegration of the country; 10 million lei for supporting the Diaspora Acasă Reuşeşte “DAR 1+3” program; 20 million lei for subsidizing jobs; 130 million lei for the Prima casă (First House) state program. The government's Reserve Fund will amount to 150 million lei, and the Intervention Fund - 230 million lei. // 04.12.2025 — InfoMarket
