Moldova’s GDP in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 0.4% in real terms, compared to the same period in 2025, reaching 77.4519 billion lei
The National Bureau of Statistics (BNS) released these preliminary figures, noting that trends in the following economic sectors had a positive impact on GDP growth in January–March 2026 compared to the same period in 2025: manufacturing (which contributed 0.5% to GDP growth), accounting for 8% of GDP and recording a 6.1% increase in gross value added (GVA); wholesale and retail trade, maintenance, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (+0.4%)—accounting for 14.9% of GDP and an increase in GVA of 2.7%; production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, hot water, and air conditioning (+0.3%)—accounting for 2.9% of GDP and a 13.4% increase in GVA; transportation and storage (+0.3%) – accounting for 4.7% of GDP and a 6.6% increase in gross value added for the relevant activities; health care and social assistance (+0.2%) – accounting for 7% of GDP and a 2.8% increase in gross value added for the relevant activities; administrative and support services (+0.2%) – accounting for 1.3% of GDP and a 14.3% increase in GVA; agriculture, forestry, and fishing (+0.1%) – a 2.1% share of GDP and a 4.6% increase in GVA; compulsory social insurance – a 4.6% share of GDP and a 1.5% increase in GVA. At the same time, the following sectors had a negative impact on GDP growth during the period: real estate transactions (which led to a 0.7% decline in GDP), with a 9.0% contribution to GDP and a 7.8% decrease in GVA for that sector; information and communication technologies (-0.7%)—accounting for 8.0% of GDP and an 8.1% decrease in GVA; construction (-0.6%)—accounting for 4.0% of GDP and a 12.9% decrease in GVA; other services (-0.2%) – 1.3% share of GDP and a 10.6% decline in value added. In terms of resource utilization, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2024, was mainly driven by: exports of goods and services (+3.6%), which resulted from an increase in the volume of exports of goods and services (by 10.8%), with a contribution to GDP of 36.6%; final consumption of households (+1.6%)—contributing 91% to GDP, with its volume increasing by 1.8%; final consumption of government (+0.2%)—contributing 20.2% to GDP, with its volume increasing by 1%. At the same time, the negative impact on GDP growth by expenditure category was mainly due to a decline in gross fixed capital formation (-3.9%), which accounts for 18% of GDP. The BNS notes that GDP growth rates in the first quarter of 2026, compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, which stood at 0.4% in our country, were lower than those in the following countries: Denmark (5.8%), Poland (3.3%), North Macedonia (3.1%), Bulgaria (2.9%), Turkey (2.5%), Estonia (2.4%), Hungary (1.7%), Montenegro (1.5%), the EU average (0.6%), and Germany (0.5%). At the same time, in Ireland, Romania, and Ukraine, GDP declined by 17.1%, 1.5%, and 0.6%, respectively, during the reporting period. As previously reported, Moldova’s GDP in 2025, compared to 2024, grew by 2.4% in real terms, reaching 353.5209 billion lei. It was previously reported that the World Bank lowered its forecast for Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 by 0.8 percentage points—from 2.7% to 1.9%—and in 2027 by 0.9 percentage points—from 3.8% to 2.9%. The IMF lowered its forecast for Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 by 0.4 percentage points—from 2.3% to 1.9%—and recently reduced it further to 1.5%. The EBRD lowered its forecast for Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points—from 3% to 2.8%. At the same time, EBRD experts maintained their forecast for Moldova’s economic growth in 2027 at 3.5%. Moldovan authorities stated that they will again revise the GDP growth forecast for 2026 downward; for now, the figure stands at 1.9%. Earlier reports indicated that the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization had revised its macroeconomic forecast for 2026, with GDP growth projected at 2.2% instead of the previously forecast 3.3%. // 15.06.2026 – InfoMarket.
