The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization has revised its macroeconomic forecast for 2026: GDP growth will be 2.2%, down from the previously projected 3.3%
As noted in the analytical note accompanying the preliminary macroeconomic forecast for 2026-2029, the January 2026 scenario projected a more favorable outlook compared to the November 2025 scenario, based on more positive than expected trends in certain sectors of the national economy. According to January estimates, the economy was expected to strengthen its growth trajectory, reaching 3.3% in 2026 and accelerating to 4.5% by 2029. However, given the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the deteriorating external economic environment, this scenario is no longer relevant. As a result, the macroeconomic forecast was revised: according to the Ministry of Economy's spring forecast, GDP growth in 2026 will amount to 2.2% (387.2 billion lei or 19.6 billion euros), in 2027 – 3.6%, in 2028 – 4%, in 2029 – 4.2% (500.1 billion lei or 24.4 billion euros). The ministry emphasizes that, despite these relatively optimistic forecasts, certain vulnerabilities remain related to the developments in the region and the Middle East, as well as the possible consequences for the national economy. At the same time, the continuation of structural reforms and the implementation of investments envisaged by the Growth Plan will support economic growth. As a reminder, the World Bank previously revised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova for 2026 downwards from 2.7% to 1.9%. The International Monetary Fund has revised its economic growth estimate from 2.2% to 1.9%, while simultaneously raising its inflation forecast from 5.5% to 6.4% for 2026. According to the Ministry's updated forecast, gross fixed capital formation is projected to grow by 14.2% in 2026, representing a slowdown compared to the 2025 rate (+17.6%), amid a deteriorating external environment. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could affect investor confidence and lead to the postponement of some projects, while rising prices for key petroleum products will lead to increased investment costs, particularly in the energy-intensive and transport sectors. Consumption growth will also slow down, from 3.5% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026. The main factors will be a decline in purchasing power of the population amid inflationary pressures, caused primarily by rising prices for energy and imported goods, as well as a possible slowdown in real income growth. In the medium term, private consumption is expected to grow by approximately 3% per year, while public consumption is expected to grow by an average of 2.6%. Exports of goods and services are projected to grow by 7.9% in 2026, primarily due to a recovery in agriculture and manufacturing. Services exports, particularly in the IT and BPO sectors, will continue to grow thanks to external demand for digital services, although the pace may slow due to labor market constraints and external uncertainty. Expanded market access and the use of free trade agreements will facilitate export diversification. Import growth is estimated at 8.6% in 2026, driven by rising domestic demand, supported by consumption and investment. Consumer goods, energy resources, and technological equipment will make the main contributions, while services imports will reflect increased economic activity and foreign trade. In the medium term, exports will grow by 8–10% annually due to product and market diversification, as well as deeper trade relations with the EU. Imports will continue to demonstrate stable dynamics at 8-11% per year. In 2026, growth in the agricultural sector is expected to slow to 1.6%. This dynamics will be supported by strengthening crop production and a recovery in livestock production, but will remain limited due to rising fuel and fertilizer prices, which could negatively impact productivity and harvests. Climate uncertainty also remains a significant risk. In 2027-2029, agricultural growth is projected to be 2.7-3.2% under favorable weather conditions, supported by investments in irrigation, technology, and government programs. The industrial sector will continue to grow: growth of 3.6% is expected in 2026, and in the medium term, annual growth will be 5.8-7.3%. The construction sector will grow by approximately 3.8% in 2026 (with growth ranging from 6.6% to 9.5% over the next three years). In 2026, the employed population is expected to grow to 779,000 people (+0.7%). A further increase to 809,000 people is projected in 2027–2029. This growth will be supported by labor market reforms, employment programs, and skills development measures. The average salary in 2026 will increase by 12.3% compared to the previous year, reaching 17,200 lei; by 2029, the average salary in Moldova will reach 23,100 lei.// 28.04.2026 — InfoMarket.
