People and Business: Natural and Unnatural Selection
The Prime Minister of Moldova, Ion Chicu announced the beginning of the gradual lifting of quarantine measures at the end of last week, many noticed his apprehension and there are reasons for that. On the one hand, the epidemic has not yet been defeated; on the other, almost a month and a half since the start of the state of emergency and the stoppage of the economy by means of "manual braking" has led the country to serious economic problems.
Could it happen that many more people will suffer from bankruptcies and unemployment than from the disastrous corona virus, let’s say at least for the next six months?
Even in the US, the most affected country by COVID-19, say that the situation "went on a plateau." European countries are removing restrictions in an effort to restart the economy, have suffered from quarantine measures and isolation. These are recommended measures by the World Health Organization as a way to combat the spread of corona virus.
Let’s talk about WHO. It is now obvious that this organization will be blamed for the fact that the world has failed in the largest economic crisis of the century. The criticism of WHO has long reached the political level, following US President Donald Trump, he refused to finance WHO in the next two to three months and demanded that the organization be held accountable, Australian Foreign Minister Maris Payne also spoke about investigation of the WHO recommendations, and it’s only the beginning.
As soon as countries (Western European mainly) recover from the implementation of WHO recommendations to combat the spread of the virus and assess the scale of the economic catastrophe, the main question will arise: Was it necessary to kill the economy? And, most important question: Who is to blame?
The struggle between well-known countries for global influence, as well as the influence on international organizations (such as WHO) is not just started, it has never stopped, and it is gaining momentum now. Most likely, the World Health Organization will be "billed": there will be recalled other issues, starting with the swine flu in 2009 which described as a "medical scam" by the Council of Europe.
The fact that there are "flaws" in the activity of WHO, perhaps admitted within the organization. Moldova and Romania published COVID-19 treatment protocols with a weekly difference in late March. In fact, they provided instructions to the patients with a mild form of infection on treating at home rather than putting an exert pressure on the health system with the presence in hospitals.
In other words, the World Health Organization has always refused any self-medication categorically (including, recommendations to prohibit the free sale of antibiotics), suddenly "allowed" to treat a new type of corona virus at home.
Recently, a reasonable legal question has arisen: Why all (or almost all) countries of the world should comply with WHO recommendations? The fact is that there are a number of documents (conventions, agreements) states are obliged to implement by signing WHO recommendations in the context of epidemics and pandemics. Viruses and diseases deny the borders. This is the logic. Thus, Moldova (like most other countries) had no choice in following WHO recommendations and introducing quarantine measures and self-isolation.
At first, the North European countries refused the quarantine, then "surrendered." Sweden is the only country refused the quarantine, the whole world is waiting for the outcome. The local press writes that according to simulations conducted by local scientists, the effect of the virus on the basis of the population of the country will be less significant than their counterparts from other countries expect. Nevertheless, it is believed that at least half of the population of Sweden will be infected with the virus by the end of May, but the vast majority of the infected people will pass the disease in a mild form. It cannot be said that nothing is being done in this country to combat the spread of the virus. Simply, there are much less restrictive measures. The educational process gives parents the opportunity to work, the residents themselves are careful and respecting self-distance if necessary.
Another country that went against the recommendations is Belarus. Even the arrival of the specialists of WHO in Minsk, could not convince President Alexander Lukashenko to "drive" the country into quarantine and self-isolation. He took responsibility for the country and acted in his own way, when almost the whole world followed WHO recommendations. The most interesting fact is that Belarus and Sweden are two completely different countries with a very different mentality of people. Most countries of the world have passed and are going through quarantine measures; it is even more interesting the final result will be for those who opposed the recommended measures. Perhaps, we can see an alternative outcome of the fight against COVID-19 thanks to these two countries. Is it worth killing economies following WHO guidelines keeping people isolated?
And a little more about Sweden, it’s the country with some of the highest taxes on cigarettes and alcohol in the world. Some economists believe that the point of view of the country is the best citizen the one who works, while smoking and drinking, because paying a lot of taxes and rarely lives up to retirement. Do you think it’s cynical view? Undoubtedly! But, politics is the ultimate manifestation of cynicism and double standards, and it’s not only politics, this also applies to large businesses, even in Moldova.
Since the beginning of the state of emergency, many large retail chains in our country have actively provided assistance to the healthcare system. PR articles were massively sent to online publications and social networks. But, on the eve of Easter, the only thing that was required from retail chains as an aid to state, to ensure social distance among visitors, this was not done. On pre-holiday days, many people crowded into the trading rooms as if there was no epidemic at all. Policemen were not present to follow this and fine violators.
The consequences of this behavior of people and commercial outlets revealed a week after Easter, Moldova recorded two record days of positive tests for corona virus - 184 cases on April 24th and 194 cases on April 25th. The point is not only in violations of social distance rules committed at outlets, but also in mentality, many citizens wanted to celebrate Easter with their relatives, despite the prohibitions and warnings. Although, there were more tests done during this period, including repeated tests.
Moldova, together with European countries, is preparing to exit the pandemic. This does not mean that the virus has stopped, there will be no new cases of infection and, as a result, deaths. This means that we are following the scenario when all the inhabitants of planet Earth are ill. There is another scenario - universal vaccination, but, as you know, there is no vaccine yet, and there are more questions than answers regarding the vaccine. Supporters of the conspiracy theory, for example, say that the vaccine from COVID-19 will be designed to reduce the growth of the world's population or "chip" the human race...
The biggest problem in the fight against the epidemic is to understand, does it exist in principle? An epidemic is declared when 5% of people (a social group or population) get sick. We cannot know this, and there are two main reasons. Firstly, there is no single statistical methodology for recording morbidity and deaths that all countries would use. Secondly, the testing process itself is carried out only for those who already have symptoms of the disease. If you test everyone, there will be significantly more cases of COVID-19 infections. Could WHO solve this problem promoting total testing as well as total self-isolation? But, testing is a necessary measure.
A good example of this is the Etulian winery. On April 17, one of the employees was hospitalized with COVID-19, then the plant management decided to test 174 employees and their families within April 21-23rd. 77 people with COVID-19 were identified, of which 68 had no symptoms (83%) or mild symptoms (5%). An old medical joke claims that "there are no absolutely healthy people, some just were not examined."
The interesting fact is that huge amounts of money are being spent on developing a vaccine all over the world, while logic suggests that money should also be directed to the production of tests that detect the presence of antitropes in the body, so that a person could know whether he had been ill with COVID-19 or not.
Russia and some other countries, are doing mass testing (qualitative and quantitative) for the antitropes. Although, the WHO announced that there is no evidence that people with COVID-19 antitropes are not susceptible to reinfection, Russian scientists believe that testing will help to collect the necessary scientific data.
The lack of data does not allow us to understand how COVID-19 actually affected humanity. After all, the world did not understand the virus completely. Is it possible, for example, to say that in 80% of cases the disease pass away without heavy symptoms, since there is no total testing? What conclusions will the world and each individual country draw, and what data can be relied on? How justified were the WHO recommendations to combat the spread of the virus?
The point is not set. What conclusions will Moldova draw? The quarantine measures here were not as severe as in the south of Europe and Russia. What if all of a sudden, as many predict, there will be a new virus outbreak in the fall? What measures will the authorities resort? Viruses show up cyclically after all. If COVID-19 is just a "dress rehearsal", then the correct conclusions and lessons learned will allow the "performance" to go relatively smoothly.
It is clear that the world will no longer be the same since the beginning of the pandemic. People will keep a social distance for a long time and the coming months will show the true state of the economy, its losses. We will see the results of the fight against the virus in the world as a whole, Belarus and Sweden in particular.
The economy is an examinee infected with COVID-19. It is very important to diagnose the situation and choose the correct treatment. The economy cannot bear a second infection. // 29.04.2020 - InfoMarket.