In 2019-2020 Moldova's annual GDP growth will amount to 3.6%, in 2021 - 3.8%, - the WB forecast.
According to the November report of the World Bank “Global Economic Prospects”, by the end of 2019, the Moldovan economy will grow by 3.6% and amount to 210.2 billion lei (forecast of the WB spring report - 3.4%). World Bank economists believe that amid falling remittances and weaker external demand, the economy will grow at a moderate pace. In 2020, the situation will not change significantly and GDP growth will be 3.6%, and in 2021 growth is expected to increase in the main partner countries of Moldova, which will affect GDP growth (+ 3.8%). The updated forecast assumes that the country's authorities will continue to implement reforms, amid stabilization of the financial situation, private consumption and investment are expected to increase, private sector confidence will increase, and social benefits and salaries in the public sector will grow. Exports will grow slowly after 2020 in tandem with increasing external demand, the current account deficit will be lower than historical values. The most dynamic sectors of the economy in the coming years will be trade, ICT and industry, the contribution of the agricultural sector to economic growth will be insignificant. In 2019, food and utilities rose in price, triggering inflation, in the medium term, inflation will not exceed the corridor established by the National Bank. Due to the increase in expenses in the pre-election period of 2018 and too optimistic expectations for tax revenues, the budget deficit will increase to 2.1% of GDP. In the next years, expenses will be higher, there are expected increased tax deficit, growth in public debt and government guarantees. According to the World Bank forecast, the average annual inflation rate in 2019 will be 4.7%, in 2020 - 4.8%, in 2021 - 5%. The volume of remittances, after growing by 13.2% and 11.9% in 2017-2018, in 2019 will grow by 3.1%, in 2020 - by 3%, in 2021 - by 2,9%. According to the WB forecast, in 2019, exports will grow by 3.3% (2018 - 4.8%, 2017 - 10.9%), in 2020 - by 6.3%, in 2021 - by 7.5%. Import in 2019 will grow by 3.1%, in 2020 - by 5.1%, in 2021 - by 6.7% (2018 - 8.9%, 2017 - 11%) . The dynamics of total investments will also slow down - from 14% in 2018 to 9.7% in 2019, 7.6% in 2020 and 8.3% in 2021. In order to strengthen potential economic growth, Moldova should increase the productivity of the economy. WB experts consider the activities of state-owned enterprises unproductive and consider them a “leak” from a fiscal point of view. It is also noted that corruption and bureaucracy hinder the growth of the economy, it is necessary to strengthen state institutions, ensure access to justice, and create conditions for equal competition in the economy. The abolition of price controls, the demonopolization of the economy and increased competition will free up resources for productivity growth. WB economists point to low export volumes; it is formed by products with low added value. They pay special attention to performance - it is not only low, but also slows down. In addition, the labor market is characterized by a low number of skilled workers.//28.11.2019 — InfoMarket.